Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. This year? by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. I expect a busy offseason for the Mariners, with a definite focus on second base and corner outfield, and the Rangers have already been able to retain their best free agent-to-be, Martin Perez, for the 2023 season. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. Not sure thats really true. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. They rode an excellent bullpen and some clutch hitting to a 90-win season but fell short of breaking their historic playoff drought by just two games. With one major exception, most of the problems now are accuracy rather than bias. It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. Of note here is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time baked in than lower-percentile projections before this step. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the worlds most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Make no mistake even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock. They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. You can also support monthly for just $3. The irony in that is, I could make an argument this team has more current question marks than last years team at this point with an unsettled outfield, an unsettled rotation, Ronald Acuna Jr coming off a major injury, same with Charlie Morton, etc. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineups core remains intact. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox's chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. I know they dont want to block their prospects, but they dont seem to have been all that imaginative; the Red Sox figured out how to add Story to a team that already had Xander Bogaerts. It wouldnt be surprising to see the mean absolute error for an exercise like this, I want to use the simplest tool that gets the point across creep up over time. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but theyre also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past. That level of divisional chaos is sure to delight Jay Jaffe, my colleague and GM of Team Entropy or at least it would if MLB hadnt made the decision to eliminate tiebreaker games in 2022, going instead with NFL-style tiebreak procedures only. The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. The goal of ZiPS is to be less mind-blowingly awful than any other way of predicting the future. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Every spot of the lineup is projected to be worth at least two WAR, even the shortstop crater that Jeremy Pea will seek to fill. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. by Retrosheet. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. Out went Gray, Castellanos, Barnhart, Winker, Surez, Wade Miley and Amir Garrett. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points arent ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r^2 is the Mariners, at 0.03, which isnt terribly meaningful. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. Shane Bazs elbow injury is concerning, but Yonny Chirinos should be making a return from his own elbow injury and Corey Kluber was signed to give them a little more stability in their rotation. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. Read the rest of this entry . We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. New for this year, Ive opted to include defense as a component, though its weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is live. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. Trent Grisham, CF; Manny Machado, 3B; Jake Cronenworth, 2B; Luke Voit, DH; Wil Myers, RF; Eric Hosmer, 1B; Austin Nola, C; Jurickson Profar, LF; Ha-Seong Kim, SS; Last season's Padres ranked 14th in both runs scored and wRC+, a catch-all metric housed at FanGraphs that adjusts for park and other variables. On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. Read the rest of this entry . And then theres the Orioles. : 0767266154 or via messenger Facebook page. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. by Retrosheet. We've graded all 32 teams -- including one A+ and two F's -- and announced the winners of our own batch of awards . But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. Unlike the last two disappointing seasons, they should have enough talent to succeed without deGrom leading the rotation. The exercise continues this offseason. Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. Every Wednesday until November 30th: Daimon Latino Nights. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! In the. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. Its a big bet on their player development group, which could pay dividends in a couple of years. Losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first three months of the season puts them at a serious disadvantage, and they chose to make surprisingly few acquisitions over the offseason after two years of near-frenetic activity. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Read the rest of this entry . Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. Looking at the in-season ZiPS projections, roster strength has varied much more in recent years than when I started doing this. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Giants only at 81 wins? PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections MLB News Written By Staff on March 29, 2022 After the lockout, Major League Baseball's opening day is now April 7. Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. The exercise continues this offseason. The exercise continues this offseason. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. ATC Projections Expected 2022 Win Totals. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. Completely bonkers if the payroll stays there, but since it ranged from $136M-$157M from 2017-2019 Id say its a safe bet to increase. The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. Sign up for the This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. This 85-win projection is based on more solid ground. Any trades would be to move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale. yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a state of the union estimate for each team. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Still they lost their starting catcher (Posey), second baseman (Solano), left fielder (Bryant), and best pitcher (Gausman). Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
It would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last postseason appearance. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddingtons arrow of time, its probably not going to be in the form of baseball projections. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. by Retrosheet. My own expectation (Vazquez) would be $8-14M. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. by Handedness, The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, The Angels Believe In the Youth in Their Outfield. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. #1 Adley Rutschman. The methodology Im using here is the same one I use in the regular season, and as such, it isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings. Braves News: Dana Brown Interviews with Astros, Thoughts on Extending Max Fried, more, Keeping Max Fried is more important than Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. Despite all these new faces in Minnesota, the pitching staff still feels thin. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Toronto also projects to have the lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
newsletter, Braves shut out of Baseball Americas Top 100 prospect list, Looking ahead to former Atlanta Braves likely to appear on upcoming Hall of Fame ballots, Braves Hall of Fame profile: Andruw Jones. The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC. Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. The Premier League fixtures for the 2022-23 season were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am ET. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. Just need to make it a full 6. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Surez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. So what *does* Chicago have to spend? A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Welcome back, baseball! And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. No fucking way they are that low next year. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. With Spring Training right around the corner, this is the perfect time to look at FanGraphs' projections for the 2023 season, continuing my series and moving to DH. So under the current format, they make it in as the first wildcard and have to face * checks notes * Jacob DeGrom or Corbin Burnes in a 1 game playoff. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. The NHL has passed the mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 regular season. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article.
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